The hottest natural rubber shows its bull market s

2022-10-18
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Tianjiao shows its bullish demeanor again

recently, encouraged by the record highs of bulk commodities such as copper and gold, Tianjiao futures once again started a new round of rise, and the continued strong consumption and relatively tight supply of Tianjiao also added enough momentum and momentum to the upward trend of Tianjiao. On May 10, Shanghai Rubber almost rose by the daily limit, and the main contract ru0608 broke through the 24000 mark again. A new high of Tianjiao is just around the corner

the commodity bull market has laid a hotbed for Tianjiao to reach a new high. At present, the commodity bull market represented by gold, copper and other metals and crude oil is in full swing. The good growth of the global economy, concerns about supply shortages, the depreciation of the US dollar and the promotion of funds such as funds are the main reasons for this round of historically rare commodity profit bull market. As an important industrial raw material, natural rubber is also one of the bull market commodities. It can be said that there is no sign of the end of the bull market of the above-mentioned resource commodities, and there is no doubt that the futures price of natural rubber has hit another record high

The strong demand for natural rubber is one of the driving forces behind its price rise. Globally, the global consumption of natural rubber reached 8.742 million tons in 2005, an increase of 5.08% over 2004, while the output in 2005 was 8.682 million tons, an increase of only 0.69%, and the gap between supply and demand reached 60000 tons. It is expected that the global consumption of natural rubber will maintain a good growth momentum in 2006. An official of the International Rubber Research Organization (IRSG) said recently that the world rubber supply shortage will increase to 820000 tons by 2010, and the supply gap is expected to be 250000 tons in 2006. The strong demand for natural rubber and the slow growth of natural rubber production form a sharp contrast. At the same time, the output of natural rubber will never increase significantly in the short term. In the 1990s, low prices led small growers to reduce the number of seeds planted, while rubber. With scientists' in-depth research on graphene, rubber trees need 7 years to mature. New high yield rubber trees planted in India and Malaysia can only produce rubber from 2010. Therefore, in the long run, it is difficult for the global natural rubber price to make a sharp correction, and it is possible to continue to rise

domestically, China's economy grew by 10.2% in the first quarter, driving the demand for rubber, including natural rubber. According to statistics, in the first quarter, the national tire production (including all kinds of casing) was 94.97 million, an increase of 17.6% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the national consumption of various types of rubber in the first quarter was about 1.3 million tons, an increase of more than 15% over the same period last year, with a great increase. Among the new rubber resources in the first quarter, natural rubber was 380000 tons, an increase of 6.1% over the same period last year, of which 360000 tons were imported, an increase of 5.6% over the same period last year; Synthetic rubber was 767000 tons, an increase of 26.6%, with a strong growth momentum. On the whole, domestic rubber supply and demand remained tight in the first quarter, especially natural rubber

the tapping season is coming, but there are still uncertainties in the supply of natural rubber. In May, Southeast Asia and southern China began to cut rubber. According to the general law, the supply of natural rubber should be relatively loose, but the reality is not optimistic. First, the recent dry weather in Southeast Asia has restricted the supply of natural rubber. According to traders, as Indonesia and Malaysia are still in the dry and deciduous period, the supply of natural rubber is not growing fast enough to meet the demand. Second, Hainan, the main production area of natural rubber in China, suffered the once-in-a-century drought and the once-in-32-year typhoon disaster last year, which not only led to a sharp reduction in the production of natural rubber by 30% last year, but also in the next few years. Industry experts believe that it will take at least five years for Hainan agricultural reclamation rubber production to recover to the level of 230000 tons in 2004. It can be said that this year, both domestic and international supply of natural rubber is difficult to be optimistic, and the price of natural rubber will also be strongly supported

judging from the trend, after the full adjustment of Shanghai Rubber from early February to April, the market has fully released the negative factors in the early stage, and consumers have also alleviated and digested the pressure of the rising price of natural rubber raw materials by partially raising the product price. At present, the bull popularity in the market has gathered again, and a new round of rising is now that most aluminum doors and windows are still ordinary aluminum profiles, and the installation of single-layer glass has quietly started from mid April. In fact, at present, the daily average of ru0608, the main contract of Shanghai Jiao, has been in a long line, with an obvious upward trend. Moreover, on May 10, it was once again confirmed that the breakthrough in the middle and late April was effective. It is only one step away from the historical high of 24480 on February 10, and it will be inevitable to refresh the historical new high of additives in waste plastics

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